Earnings season kicks off next week, and as always, the big US banks report first. Six major US banks are scheduled to report between 14–15 July, all before the US market opens.

They enter earnings season with strong momentum. Five of the six have traded near record highs in the past two weeks, buoyed by sector rotation, deregulatory tailwinds, and a record-breaking M&A cycle. All six cleared the Fed's annual stress test, and each has since rewarded shareholders through dividends or buybacks.

Expectations are high, but this can cut both ways. When a stock is priced for good news, even a solid result can disappoint if it doesn't clear a raised bar, and a weak print can send the price sharply lower. That's what makes this week worth following, and why the risk of loss is just as real as the opportunity.

EPS and revenue will draw attention, but some other metrics may offer additional insight into each bank's performance. Here's what we'll be watching for each, and why it tends to matter to the share price. The commentary below is general market information, not a recommendation or advice.

Company | Ticker | Date | YTD% | Implied Move %¹

¹ Data as of the market close on 6 July 2026.
² All dates are in Eastern Time (ET).

Watch: FICC trading revenue

Goldman enters Q2 earnings in a unique position: record-breaking deal flow, but a stock that's pulled back meaningfully from its June highs.

The bank just crossed $1 trillion in M&A advisory volume in H1 2026 — the fastest any bank has ever hit that milestone. Goldman is also benefiting from blockbuster IPO activity, having led the SpaceX listing and remaining a key adviser on the upcoming OpenAI IPO — a deal pipeline that could support another strong quarter.

But here's the catch. Last quarter, fixed income (FICC) was the one weak spot — down 10% when everything else was flying. If FICC disappoints again, the stock won't wait around.

Price is currently pulling back from its mid-June peak, testing the lower edge of the June 26 gap near $1,055 — a level worth watching closely into the print.

Watch: NII vs. $50B full-year guidance

WFC has something to prove. Last quarter, NII missed estimates and the stock dropped nearly 5% in a single session. The problem wasn't loan growth — that was actually up — but it wasn't translating into higher profit margins. This is the second-chance quarter.

The market needs to see that gap close. A second miss puts the $50B full-year target at risk. A beat puts WFC back on track — and on the chart, price has already broken above the April high of $86.7, with a beat potentially opening the door to the February high near $95.

Watch: Net interest income (NII)

BAC is among the most rate-sensitive of the big banks — when rates move, it feels it more than anyone else. With the Fed openly discussing hikes, the backdrop is theoretically ideal for NII expansion.

Management raised their full-year guidance last quarter, and the stock is currently trading at record levels. However, no outcome is guaranteed.

Watch: Efficiency ratio

Citi is the outlier in this group: it's still a turnaround story. Years of restructuring, leadership changes, and cost-cutting have finally started to resonate with the market.

But the story shifts this quarter. With 90% of the transformation now complete, the market isn't interested in hearing about restructuring anymore. It wants proof in the numbers. Specifically: is the efficiency ratio actually improving? If it is, Citi's discount to peers becomes harder to justify — and the re-rating trade kicks in.

On the chart, a post-earnings move below $138 or above $148 could trigger a stronger directional trend.*

*Source: TradingView, 7 July 2026.

Watch: Investment banking fees

Last quarter, investment banking fees surged 28% year-on-year — M&A activity was booming and JPM was at the centre of it. The bar is now set high. If deal-making momentum holds into Q2, the market moves on. If it slows, the stock feels it immediately.

On the chart, price is testing the January high at $337.25 — a clean break above that level could indicate a continuation of the uptrend.*

*Source: TradingView, 7 July 2026.

Watch: Wealth Management net new assets

Morgan Stanley trades at a premium to every other bank in this group — and Q2's 27% stock gain made it the best performer of the six.

That premium is built on one thing above all else: how much new money is flowing into wealth management. Last quarter, net new assets hit a record $118B. If that number slows, so does the valuation story.

On the chart, price has broken above the early June high of $219.2, with $230.5 as the upside target and $205.7 as the level to hold on any pullback.*

*Source: TradingView, 7 July 2026.

Bank earnings aren't just about the banks. They're the market's first real read on the US economy this quarter — consumer spending, corporate borrowing, deal activity.

If they deliver, the bull market could broaden. If they disappoint, volatility may spread beyond the financial sector. Either way, earnings season typically brings heightened volatility and market movement.

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Note: all figures in this article are correct as of 7 July 2026; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.