The next major battleground sits at the 200-day moving average at $74.28. This level could offer support and may attract tactical buyers or scalpers looking to play a short-term bounce. But should it fail, attention will quickly turn to filling the gap that opened on 27 February in the wake of the US-Iran conflict.

That gap represents an important technical level, not only for longer-term investors looking to add exposure, but also for traders sitting on profitable short positions who may look to lock in gains.

For now, the market remains fixated on the finer details of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and the willingness of both sides to adhere to the agreement. At the same time, reports of faster-than-expected production increases from key producers, coupled with the prospect of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz normalising, are making life easier for the bears.

The trend remains lower and rallies are likely to be sold. But with several major technical levels fast approaching, the market may soon discover where buyers are prepared to step in and where sellers decide it is time to take profits.