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Analysis

Equities

Q2 25 ‘Magnificent Seven’ Earnings Preview: By The Numbers

Michael Brown
Michael Brown
Senior Research Strategist
11 July 2025
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The performance of the ‘magnificent seven’ names has continued to diverge over the last quarter, with the stocks in question increasingly being driven by idiosyncratic factors, as opposed to the incredibly close correlations displayed over the last couple of years.

Alphabet (GOOG, 9pm BST/4pm ET, 23rd July)

Alphabet kick off mag 7 reporting season, trading a disappointing 6% lower YTD, underperforming both the benchmark S&P 500, and the Communication Services sector. Combining both of the firm’s listings, Alphabet have around a 4% weighting in the S&P, and around 7% in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100. Options tied to the stock price a move of +/-5.5% in the 24 hours following the release, with GOOG having surprised to the upside of consensus EPS expectations in every quarter since Q1 23. This time out, consensus expects diluted EPS at $2.16, on revenues of $93.8bln.

Preview

Tesla (TSLA, 9:05pm BST/4:05pm ET, 23rd July)

Tesla have rather run out of charge this year, trading around 25% lower, albeit some distance off the mid-March lows, as participants continue to take a dim view of the ongoing Trump-Musk feud, and with the removal of EV subsidies also posing stiff headwinds. In any case, TSLA still stand as the 10th largest stock in the S&P 500, and as the 9th largest in the Nasdaq 100. Derivatives imply a punchy move of +/-7.2% in the day after the upcoming earnings release, with TSLA having rallied following the last three reports running. For the Q2 report, after delivery figures recently missed expectations, the Street expects adj. EPS at $0.44, on revenues of $22.9bln.

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Microsoft (MSFT, 9pm BST/4pm ET, 30th July)

Microsoft trade around 20% higher YTD, continuing to find plenty of love from market participants, as the AI boom continues. Consequently, MSFT sit as the 2nd largest stock in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, while also having a 7% weighing in the Dow. Microsoft options price a move of +/-4.3% in the day following the report, with the stock having rallied following the prior report, but having ended the day lower in the aftermath of the three reports before that. This time out, consensus foresees adj. EPS at $3.37, on revenues of $73.8bln, which would represent solid YoY growth of 13% in constant currency terms.

Preview

Meta (META, 9:05pm BST/4:05pm ET, 30th July)

Meta remain a market darling, having rallied about 25% this year, being the 3rd best performing Consumer Services stock in the S&P 500 in 2025. The stock also stands as the 5th largest stock in both the S&P and the Nasdaq 100, with a sizeable 6% weighting in the latter. Meta options price a move of +/-6.6% in the session following the earnings release, with the stock having ended the day in the green following three of the last four quarterly reports. For the upcoming release, expectations point to diluted EPS at $5.84, on revenues of $44.6bln.

Preview

Apple (AAPL, 9:30pm BST/4:30pm ET, 31st July)

Apple continue to trade in relatively dismal fashion, sitting approximately 15% lower on the year, as the stock faces numerous headwinds including ongoing tariff-related uncertainty, and as progress on AI remains painfully slow, severely lacking competitors. Despite that, AAPL remains the third largest stock in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, while also being a Dow constituent. AAPL derivatives price a relatively modest move of +/-3.7% in the day following earnings, though the stock has ended the day in the red following the last three reports in a row. For the upcoming release, consensus expectations are for EPS at $1.43, on revenues of $89.1bln.

Preview

Amazon (AMZN, Date & Time TBC, likely late-July)
Amazon have been a rather ordinary performer this year, sitting pretty much unchanged YTD coming into the upcoming report, notably lagging the benchmark S&P 500, in which the stock retains a 4.2% weight. Along with that, AMZN is also the 4th largest stock in the Nasdaq 100, as well as being a Dow constituent. Options tied to Amazon price a move of +/-5.4% in the day following the report, though the stock has ended earnings day in the red following three of the last four releases, despite having surprised to the upside of EPS expectations in every quarter since the tail end of 2022. This time out, the Street foresees diluted EPS at $1.33, on revenues just shy of $162bln.

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Nvidia (NVDA, 9:20pm/4:20pm ET, 27th August)
Nvidia round out ‘mag 7’ reporting season, and continue to trade very well indeed, sitting around 22% higher YTD, and remaining the ultimate ‘picks and shovels’ play of the AI boom. Furthermore, the stock sits as the largest in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, while having also been included in the Dow relatively recently. Although we remain six weeks out from the print, NVDA options imply a move of +/-7.3% in the aftermath of the upcoming report, with the stock having surprised to the upside of expectations for the last three quarters in a row. In terms of expectations, NVDA is seen delivering adj. EPS at $1.00, on revenues of $45.5bln.

Preview

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